For centuries, scientists and charlatans have claimed to know what's happening tomorrow before tomorrow comes. But how well can we really predict the future? Can past events--Hurricane Katrina, bull markets, the SARS outbreak--help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In Apollo's Arrow , Canadian scientist David Orrell looks back at ...
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For centuries, scientists and charlatans have claimed to know what's happening tomorrow before tomorrow comes. But how well can we really predict the future? Can past events--Hurricane Katrina, bull markets, the SARS outbreak--help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In Apollo's Arrow , Canadian scientist David Orrell looks back at past prognosticators, from the time of the Oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the nightly news, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. He asks how today's scientists can claim to anticipate future weather events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives? The trajectory of an arrow is something that can be determined reasonably accurately from the arrow's starting position and its velocity using the laws of physics. But if there's a gust of wind that is not included in the model, then the arrow will depart slightly from its predicted path. Might not be important, unless you happen to be the person waiting at the other end with the apple on your head. Studies have shown that social forecasting, scientific and otherwise, is about as accurate as random guessing, despite the vast numbers of highly paid experts employed to do it. If the futurologists of the 1960s had been right, for example, I would probably be writing this in an orbital space station as my personal robot tends to my toenails. --from Apollo's Arrow
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Add this copy of Apollo's Arrow to cart. $6.96, good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Atlanta rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Brownstown, MI, UNITED STATES, published 2007 by HarperCollins Publishers.
Add this copy of Apollo's Arrow to cart. $6.96, good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Reno rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Reno, NV, UNITED STATES, published 2007 by HarperCollins Publishers.
Add this copy of Apollos Arrow to cart. $34.11, good condition, Sold by Reuseabook rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Gloucester, GLOS, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2007 by HarperCollins Publishers.
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Seller's Description:
Dispatched, from the UK, within 48 hours of ordering. This book is in good condition but will show signs of previous ownership. Please expect some creasing to the spine and/or minor damage to the cover. Aged book. Tanned pages and age spots, however, this will not interfere with reading.
Add this copy of Apollo's Arrow to cart. $34.95, very good condition, Sold by Ainsworth Books rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Sumas, WA, UNITED STATES, published 2007 by Harper Collins.
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Very Good+ in Very Good dust jacket. 0002007401. DJ and boards show light shelf wear, short tear and minor chipping.; A bright, solid book, dustjacket in Mylar, unclipped.; 6.25 X 1.61 X 9.31 inches; 449 pages; "For centuries, scientists and charlatans have claimed to know what's happening tomorrow before tomorrow comes. But how well can we really predict the future? Can past events-Hurricane Katrina, bull markets, the SARS outbreak-help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In Apollo's Arrow, Canadian scientist David Orrell looks back at past prognosticators, from the time of the Oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the nightly news, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. He asks how today's scientists can claim to anticipate future weather events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives? "