"Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical Uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send ...
Read More
"Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical Uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit."--Publisher.
Read Less
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $5.99, very good condition, Sold by Goodwill rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Brooklyn Park, MN, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $7.50, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Movies rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $7.50, very good condition, Sold by HPB Inc. rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $9.74, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Ruby rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $10.35, good condition, Sold by SurplusTextSeller rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Columbia, MO, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Good. Ships in a BOX from Central Missouri! May not include working access code. Will not include dust jacket. Has used sticker(s) and some writing or highlighting. UPS shipping for most packages, (Priority Mail for AK/HI/APO/PO Boxes).
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $11.32, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Ruby rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2021 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $11.99, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Ruby rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $11.99, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Diamond rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $12.61, very good condition, Sold by TextbookRush rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Grandview Hts, OH, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. All orders ship SAME or NEXT business day. Expedited shipments will be received in 1-5 business days within the United States. We proudly ship to APO/FPO addresses. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed!
Add this copy of Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers to cart. $13.23, like new condition, Sold by spellbound rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from McKeesport, PA, UNITED STATES, published 2020 by W. W. Norton & Company.
