Hypothetical thought involves the imagination of possibilities and the exploration of their consequences by a process of mental simulation. Using a recently developed theoretical framework called Hypothetical Thinking Theory, Jonathan St. B.T. Evans provides an integrated theoretical account of a wide range of psychological studies on hypothesis testing, reasoning, judgement and decision making. Hypothetical thinking theory includes three key principles. First, it suggests that people explore possibilities by mental ...
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Hypothetical thought involves the imagination of possibilities and the exploration of their consequences by a process of mental simulation. Using a recently developed theoretical framework called Hypothetical Thinking Theory, Jonathan St. B.T. Evans provides an integrated theoretical account of a wide range of psychological studies on hypothesis testing, reasoning, judgement and decision making. Hypothetical thinking theory includes three key principles. First, it suggests that people explore possibilities by mental simulations based on single suppositions and that only one such hypothesis can be considered at a time ("singularity principle"). Second, it assumes that the content of such simulations is constrained by preconscious cues to relevance ("relevance principle"). Finally, it proposes that people accept the current hypothesis if there is no good reason to reject it and hence often fail to consider alternatives ("satisficing principle"). These principles are implemented by a dual-processing model which is a much revised and updated version of the Evans' well known heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning. The central claim of this book is that this theory can provide an integrated account of some apparently very diverse phenomena including confirmation bias in hypothesis testing, acceptance of fallacies in deductive reasoning, belief biases in reasoning and judgement, biases of statistical judgement and a number of characteristic findings in the study of decision making. The author also provides broad ranging discussion of cognitive biases, human rationality and dual-process theories of higher cognition. "Hypothetical Thinking" draws on and develops arguments first proposed in Evans' earlier work from this series, "Bias in Human Reasoning". In the new theory, however, cognitive biases are attributed equally to analytic and heuristic processing and a much wider range of phenomena are reviewed and discussed. It will therefore be of great interest to researchers and post-graduates in psychology and the cognitive sciences. Advanced undergraduate students may also find this book useful as a comprehensive review of research on reasoning and decision making.
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