In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist ...
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In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $6.33, good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Atlanta rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Brownstown, MI, UNITED STATES, published by Emblem Editions.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $6.53, good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Dallas rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published by McClelland & Stewart.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $12.99, very good condition, Sold by Russell Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Victoria, BC, CANADA.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $12.99, good condition, Sold by Russell Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Victoria, BC, CANADA.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $12.99, fair condition, Sold by Russell Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Victoria, BC, CANADA.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We to cart. $15.99, good condition, Sold by Brit Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Milton Keynes, BUCKINGHAMSHIRE, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2011 by Virgin Books.
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Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $16.79, good condition, Sold by Greener Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from London, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2011 by Virgin Books.
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Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $18.00, very good condition, Sold by Hourglass Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Vancouver, BC, CANADA, published 2010 by McClelland & Stewart.
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Very Good in Very Good, Not Price Clipped jacket. Book Complete number line from 1 to 5; some edge wear to boards and dust jacket; gift inscription on front end paper; otherwise a solid, clean copy with no marking or underlining; collectible condition.
Add this copy of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail-and Why We to cart. $105.86, new condition, Sold by GridFreed rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from North Las Vegas, NV, UNITED STATES, published 2010 by McClelland & Stewart.
